The “Democrats in disarray” narrative — a hackneyed, unimaginative crutch for political journalists — is sometimes revealed as a canard. Remember when Democratic infighting between progressives and moderates was supposed to deny the party a House majority in the 2018 elections?
Other times, the narrative becomes more of a truism — usually because some ambitious, headline-seeking Democrats breathe life into it by doing their best Chicken Little impression. The current push to force President Joe Biden to exit stage left is one such instance.
Let’s start with the facts: Biden had a disastrous debate performance against former President Donald Trump, which led some Democrats to panic, looking for a fire alarm to pull. In the first 15 minutes, a hoarse-sounding Biden appeared unable to think and respond nimbly, unleashing meandering statements that trailed off mid-sentence or veered off topic. The performance triggered Democrats’ concerns about the 81-year-old’s physical condition and mental acuity.
Almost immediately, calls for Biden to step down and allow another Democrat to replace him began to circulate on social media. Liberal activists lamented the end of democracy, conceding the entire election. Democratic elected officials, campaign consultants, party donors, and numerous editorial boards piled on. But what they are asking for is nonsensical.
Let’s start with the logistical considerations: were he to withdraw from the race, Biden would leave the Democratic Party rudderless, with no obvious nominee. Dozens of ambitious Democrats would likely jump into the race. With no nominee, the convention floor would be chaotic, potentially requiring multiple ballots until only one candidate was left standing.
Far-left progressives would insist on a Bernie Sanders-type candidate atop the ticket. Various interest groups would demand certain planks or policy positions be added to the party’s official platform. The tumultuous infighting — all in view of television cameras — would only revive the “Democrats in disarray” narrative.
Vice President Kamala Harris, who should be the presumptive nominee, would be harshly scrutinized, with detractors pointing to her lackluster approval ratings and past unfavorable press coverage. The optics of potentially passing over the first Black and female vice president for someone else would be terrible. It would play poorly with most of the Democratic base and could alienate one of the party’s most loyal constituencies — Black women — at a time when all members of the anti-Trump voting coalition need to be united.
Beyond the political machinations of choosing an eventual nominee, there’s also the question of whether a Biden replacement could win. According to recent polling, all of the Democratic alternatives to Biden would fare worse in a general election.
Then there’s the practical aspect of a Biden withdrawal. By yanking himself from the race, Biden would cede two advantages: incumbency and the lack of a serious primary challenger. Both advantages are lost if Harris or someone else wins the nomination, especially after a contentious convention.
Sometimes fate or destiny plays a higher role. The Democrats may be destined to lose. This does not mean every left-leaning and independent voter should stay home. It means they should proudly cast their votes on principle, and accept — with some measure of hurt, but also grace — an electoral loss.
If Biden is meant to lose, it’s likely that Democrats in general are on a similar path. Most voters won’t make the nuanced distinction between the president and other members of his party, especially as ticket-splitting has become rarer in recent electoral cycles. And Democrats have real liabilities beyond Biden at the top of the ticket.
Beyond voters’ very real concerns about the direction of the economy, inflation, and wages not growing quickly enough to keep pace with rising prices, the Democratic Party has — and has had, for years –- a messaging problem. Democrats are often derided for offering ten-point plans and speaking to voters as if they’re delivering a thesis for a master’s degree, rather than speaking in stark, tangible terms about how Republican governance would be bad for everyone’s personal lives.
While Taraji P. Henson was right to warn viewers of the BET Awards that “the Project 2025 plan is not a game,” when people Google “Project 2025,” they’ll discover a Heritage Foundation document that is 922 pages in length — far too long for the casual voter to wade through. Critiques offered from left-wing think tanks are often equally as tedious to read. Has no one on the Left heard of bullet points?
If Democrats want to paint Republicans as an existential threat to democracy, they need to be more upfront, speaking in specifics about what Project 2025 entails: Single ladies, this would effectively ban the morning-after pill! Frat bros, do you know Republicans want to ban porn? Hourly wage workers, do you know that Republicans want to take away overtime pay? Democrats should do all they can to cast Project 2025 as the plan to “work longer, for less money and no benefits.”
Centrists and the political Left have many reasons to fear a second Trump presidency: Trump’s autocratic inclinations, a Republican Congress intent on enabling him, and a Supreme Court that recently just ruled that presidents have immunity from prosecution, so long as their actions are done in their “official capacity.”
Despite Trump distancing himself rhetorically from Project 2025, it’s hard to argue that he won’t bend to the will of the more than 110 conservative groups backing the initiative and attempt to enact Project 2025’s policy proposals. At base, Project 2025 seeks to mold the U.S. government in the image of countries like Hungary and Russia, with a Putin- or Orbán-style unitary executive at the top. And, from an LGBTQ perspective, that kind of socially conservative, autocratic regime is the type of government that, historically, can’t resist targeting sexual and gender minorities.
To defeat Trump, a center-left coalition will have to work to deny him an Electoral College majority. If that is the campaign’s focus, then voting for Biden is a means to an end, not an endorsement of the incumbent president.
In 2000, Missouri voters faced a choice between incumbent U.S. Republican Sen. John Ashcroft and Democratic Gov. Mel Carnahan. Three weeks before the election, Carnahan died in a plane crash. On Election Day, the majority of voters in Missouri, fed up with Ashcroft, elected Carnahan posthumously.
Voting for Biden is far less of a haul than voting for a dead guy. Demanding he exit the race, by comparison, becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, giving voters an excuse to support Trump.
Democrats should have one focus this election cycle: to beat Trump and the Republicans. They should also borrow a page from the Republicans, and stand by their nominee, regardless of any flaws or lackluster performances on debate stages. As the old saying goes, “You’ve gotta dance with the one who brung ya.” For Democrats, that’s Joe Biden.
John Riley is the Senior Editor of Metro Weekly. Follow him on X at @JRileyMW.
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